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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LANE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM
77 TO 90 KNOTS AND SO THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 85
KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE
CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VERY LARGE EYE...BUT LITTLE OR
NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
THE EYE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS
300/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DISCUSSED
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN WEAKEN THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LANE AS A MID- TO UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 34N135W MOVES EASTWARD.  THE
NOGAPS KEEPS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE IN PLACE TO KEEP LANE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMPLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND REMAINS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE GFDL.  IF LANE WEAKENS
LESS RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST THEN A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BECOMES LIKELY.  IN ANY EVENT...LARGE QUANTITIES OF
MOISTURE FROM LANE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/1500Z 21.2N 114.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     11/0000Z 21.9N 116.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     11/1200Z 23.1N 117.7W    80 KTS
36HR VT     12/0000Z 24.3N 119.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     12/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.0N 123.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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