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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000

LANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE...60 N MI DIAMETER...EYE AND AN
IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 85
KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY
UNTIL THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE EYE WOBBLED A BIT TOWARD THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT BASED ON
LONGER-TERM MOTION...THE HEADING ESTIMATE IS STILL 305 DEGREES.  THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO
HOLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THERE
COULD BE COMPLICATIONS.  A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC
VORTEX IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS NEAR 34N137W AND IN
THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS.  THE AVN AND U.K. MET
OFFICE MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING EASTWARD AND ERODING THE
RIDGE...THUS INDUCING A MORE NORTHWARD STEERING FOR LANE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  OF COURSE...BY THAT TIME...LANE COULD BE
SO WEAK THAT IT WILL NOT RESPOND MUCH TO DEEPER-LAYER STEERING.  THE
LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT AT
72 HOURS WHERE IT IS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHAT.  THIS IS
BETWEEN THE U.K. MET AND GFDL TRACKS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 20.8N 114.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 21.7N 115.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 22.9N 117.3W    85 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.0N 120.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N 123.0W    45 KTS
 
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