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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000
 
THE EYE OF LANE PASSED VERY NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AND THE STATION REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 973.7 MB.  IN
ADDITION...T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. 
CONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.

THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24-36
HOURS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTERWARD AS THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WATER THAT IS LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...KEEPING LANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST
TRACK.  ON THIS COURSE...THE LARGE HURRICANE WILL PARALLEL BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE SPREADING SQUALLS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.  AS LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN
OVER COOLER WATER...A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM
SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/2100Z 20.1N 112.0W    80 KTS
12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.2N 113.0W    85 KTS
24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.5N 116.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     11/1800Z 24.5N 117.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     12/1800Z 26.0N 122.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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