HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000
 
LANE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A BANDING TYPE EYE WHICH IS
CROSSING VERY NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS GOOD ENOUGH
TO BRING THE WINDS UP TO 70 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

LANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE
HURRICANE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS WHICH INDEED ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
ON THIS TRACK LANE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA BUT BECAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LARGE...SQUALLS WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE COSTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 18.9N 110.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 24.5N 120.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN