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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  AN EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS
MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LANE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CURVE TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMIALR TO AND AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE. 
THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 78 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE EYE
FEATURE AND PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND RADII ARE QUICKLY DECREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS
THE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE FUNNELING EFFECT
OF ITS HIGH TERRAIN.

ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFFSHORE
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AND
HIGH WAVES COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 18.4N 110.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W    75 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.8N 112.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 22.8N 115.3W    75 KTS
72HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N 118.0W    70 KTS
  
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