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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT LANE HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65
KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN APPEARANCE OF A 25NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE ON THE LAST 2 VISIBLE IMAGES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING.  LANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHWEST AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AFTER 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE UKMET MODEL.

LANE HAS UNDERGONE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH
MAY CONTINUE INTO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT.
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...BUT ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD COTINUE UNTIL LANE
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HR.

NOTE:  THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE SIGNIFCANTLY EXPANDED TO THE
NORTHEAST BASED ON 00Z SHIPS REPORTS WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. 
HOWEVER...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WILL WEAKEN BY 12 TO 18 HOURS AS LANE MOVES
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 17.4N 109.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 18.4N 110.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 113.1W    85 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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