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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2000
 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON...
SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS.  LATEST IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A
BANDING FEATURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR...
IMPLYING THAT SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION MAY BE STARTING. 
HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...ASSUMING LANE BREAKS
AWAY FROM THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH IT HAS BEEN
EMBEDDED...WE EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  

LATEST FIXES AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTED A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
360/2.  A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN AND
U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.  THESE MODELS SHOW A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...AND A GRADUAL
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE IN THE
PERIOD.    
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 14.1N 107.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.4N 107.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 14.8N 107.8W    35 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.0N 107.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.2N 108.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W    65 KTS
 
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