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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2000
 
LANE IS DEPICTED ON IR IMAGES AS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE.  HOWEVER...DVORAK
T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST 40-KNOT WINDS. THE FUTURE INTENSITY IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT OLD RULES SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A LARGE
CIRCULATION AND WARM WATERS...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR AND
RESTRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF
SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT. 

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND LITTLE MOTION IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A GENERAL SLOW
NORTHWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS IS
ALSO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 13.5N 108.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 107.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 107.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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