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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2000
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
SOUTHEAST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION ESTIMATES.  APPARENTLY THE CENTER HAS
BEEN EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP.  THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE GFDL MODEL
TRACK FORECASTS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE SAME LOCATION.  LANE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY...EVENTUALLY LOOPING BACK ACROSS ITS TRACK. 
THIS IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST...BUT A BIT
SLOWER.
 
THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGER-
SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS EMBEDDED. 
BECAUSE OF THE CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NO
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  THEREAFTER...
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ALLOWED FOR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
BASED ON A REPORT OF 34 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SHIP ELXZ7...THE RADIUS
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF LANE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 13.9N 108.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.2N 107.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N 107.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 108.0W    65 KTS
 
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