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TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2000
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED JUST A LITTLE AND THERE ARE NOW TWO
AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CONVECTIVE BLOB. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ACCORDING
TO SHIPS MODEL...IT IS MOSTLY DUE TO WARM WATERS SINCE SHEAR IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE.

LANE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 265/08. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING LANE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD MAKE
VERY DIFFICULT FOR LANE TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR A LONG TIME. HOWEVER
...AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED NOT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.3N 109.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 110.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.0N 112.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 114.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N 116.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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