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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000
 
THE CENTER AND INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE ON INFRARED
IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/04.  THE 06Z AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN A COL
AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO THE EAST AND WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS A WEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS WHICH IS
THE GUIDANCE MODEL CONSENSUS...MORE OR LESS.

THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. 
CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 2.5 BUT T NUMBERS ARE ONLY 2.0
SUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND.  THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED 5
DTO 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THIS TREND BUT THE
FORECAST IS STILL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 13.5N 134.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 135.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.5N 136.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 13.7N 136.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 13.9N 137.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 138.5W    45 KTS
  
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