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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH
POSSIBLE MULTIPLE VORTICES WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES...AND A 0605Z SSMI OVERPASS
SHOWING A GOOD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0321Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY OR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE COL REGION IN THE MEAN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT AND
THE 01/00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN
TO THE NORTH.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO
FORECASTS...AND BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GUNS MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN
LOW...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM COULD REACH
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE BROAD
CIRCULATION...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS NEAR THE MID- OR LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTERS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS IGNORED AFTER 24
HOURS SINCE IT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH RAPIDLY ACCELERATES
THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...AND LBAR IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER MODEL IN THE
06Z FORECAST SUITE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 14.1N 133.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.3N 133.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 14.6N 134.1W    35 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 134.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N 135.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W    40 KTS
 
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