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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2000
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 1600
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FORM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AT THIS TIME BUT THE
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE...THE
DEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/04. SINCE THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/2100Z 13.5N 133.2W 25 KTS
12HR VT 01/0600Z 13.7N 133.8W 30 KTS
24HR VT 01/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W 35 KTS
36HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 135.4W 40 KTS
48HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 03/1800Z 16.5N 138.5W 40 KTS
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