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WTPA42 PHFO 311500
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 AM HST THU AUG 31 2000
 
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE LOCATION OF JOHN DUE TO THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION. CHOSE A POINT ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE TWO FIXES
PROVIDED BY SAB AND THE HONOLULU SATELLITE MET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE
THE SYSTEM IS. 

JOHN HAS SHOWN NO SIGN OF STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST SIX HOURS SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEAKENING TREND KNOCKING OFF ANOTHER 10 KT
PER DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JOHN TO BE
A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS.

MODEL GROUPING IS A LOT TIGHTER THIS TIME AROUND WITH MOST ALL
TAKING JOHN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS LBAR
WHICH SHOOTS JOHN UP TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO P91E. CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 16.6N 141.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.0N 141.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.3N 142.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.6N 142.5W    25 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.1N 143.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 13.3N 143.5W    25 KTS


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