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WTPA42 PHFO 310900
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST WED AUG 30 2000

IN A MATTER OF A COUPLE HOURS JOHN LOST MOST ALL OF HIS DEEP
CONVECTION. APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST SHEAR. AM TEMPTED TO WEAKEN JOHN SUBSTANTIALLY
BUT WILL STAY WITHIN MODEL CONSTRAINTS THIS TIME AROUND AND DROP
JOHN DOWN TO 45 KT. THIS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REFORMING. 

JOHN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE WHEN THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF STEERING WINDS...THE MODELS MOVE
JOHN IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE MAJORITY THOUGH MOVE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHWEST...SO WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT IDEA. ALL INTENSITY MODELS
WEAKEN JOHN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CRAIG.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 17.3N 140.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 17.3N 140.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.1N 141.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.8N 141.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W    35 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.7N 142.0W    30 KTS