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WTPA42 PHFO 310300
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
5 PM HST WED AUG 30 2000
 
THE CENTER OF JOHN IS OBSCURED BY COLD OVERCAST CLOUDS AND VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE HONOLULU SATELLITE UNIT PLACES IT WEST OF
140W WHILE THE LATEST SAB POSITION ISTO THE EAST OF 140W IN THE NHC
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE MOTION OF JOHN WILL REMAIN SLOW AND
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CONVECTION HAS
DRAMATICALLY DECLINED SINCE THIS MORNING UNDER APPARENT INCREASED
SHEAR. FOR NOW THE INTENSITY IS KEPT ON ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND
SINCE THE CONVECTION COULD REGENERATE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION OF JOHN IS SLOWLY NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST UNDER STEERING FROM THE TRADE WINDS. THIS TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF MOST OF THE MODELS BUT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE UK AND BAM SHALLOW. LARSON 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 17.5N 140.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.7N 140.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N 141.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 17.3N 142.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/0000Z 16.8N 143.1W    45 KTS
72HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N 144.5W    40 KTS