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WTPA42 PHFO 301800
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 AM HST WED AUG 30 2000
 
THE CENTER OF JOHN IS HIDDEN UNDER A COLD OVERCAST AND THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HONOLULU RAE BACK UP 4.0 INTENSITY
FROM EARLIER ESTIMATES OF 3.5. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN NUDGED TO
60 KT JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MOST
ACTIVE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE FORECAST STILL IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 KT
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
NORTHWEST OF HAWAII EXITS WEST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER JOHN WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR IT TO MOVE WEST IF IT  SURVIVES THE CURRENT
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LARSON 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 17.6N 140.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 141.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     31/1800Z 17.7N 142.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N 143.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N 144.3W    45 KTS
72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.9N 146.6W    40 KTS