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TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2000

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH BANDING
FEATURES MOST PROMINENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE DVORAK T-
NUMBER FROM TAFB MIAMI IS NOW 3.0...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A
45-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...IT IS NOT VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER THE
LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOWS MUCH
STRONGER SHEAR A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THUS
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HALTS THE STRENGTHENING TREND AFTER
A DAY OR SO.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW...295/04.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF JOHN IS QUITE WEAK AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO...AS GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A TROUGH NORTH OF 20N AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE 4 KNOT
MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS CLOSE TO THE TRAJACTORY SHOWN BY
THE BAROTROPIC MODEL AND DEEP LAYER BAM.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/2100Z 15.6N 138.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.8N 138.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.2N 139.6W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 141.2W    60 KTS
72HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 143.0W    60 KTS
 
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