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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME DE-COUPLED IN THE
VERTICAL.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING
SPIRAL PATTERN IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH CLOUD PATTERN.  ILEANA LOST PRACTICALLY ALL OF ITS
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME NEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR
THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS DOWN TO 55 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  GIVEN
THAT ILEANA IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY.  HOWEVER SINCE THE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SO DISRUPTED...NO RE-
INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN ON THIS ADVISORY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
PREDICTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE
ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS WEST OF 115W LONGITUDE.
 
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGES SO INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.  BASED ON
CONTINUITY AND A BLEND OF FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB...INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 280/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED.  A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE SHOULD CAUSE SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 22.6N 113.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N 114.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 23.2N 116.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W    45 KTS
 
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