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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000

...CORRECTION TO THE SECOND PARAGRAPH REFERENCE TO INITIAL
MOTION AND BEING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
 
ILEANA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND THE
OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF
65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 TO 60 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLE IN THE TRACK
DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE SHEAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL DIRECTION
SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS ILEANA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING THE RIDGE AXIS AS BEING
OVERLY STRONG...BUT IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ILEANA MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM LAND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND
GFDL MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
THERE IS ONLY A SMALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE INTENSITIES WERE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AS
INDICATED BY THE LATEST NAVO SST ANALYSIS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...EVEN THOUGH SHIPS INDICATES ILEANA WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATER WATER AND IN LOW SHEAR...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY
FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.7N 111.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W    70 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 114.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 116.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N 119.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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