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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000
...CORRECTED INTIAL WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS...
ILEANA HAS TRACKED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED AND CURRENT
MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/11.  GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS INSIST ON A
TURN TO THE WEST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTION OF A MID-TROPOPSHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...WE MUST
ACKNOWLEDGE THE MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN
OBSERVING...AND ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER TO THE NORTH. 
THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND TAKES
THE CENTER VERY NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  

WITH THE ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK...IT IS NECESSARY TO ISSUE
HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. 

DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR 3.5 SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55
KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE STORM IS EXHIBITING AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. 
SO...ILEANA WILL PROBABLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH...BUT
THAT MODEL HAS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS.  WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEGREES C.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 21.3N 108.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 22.4N 109.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
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