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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BRING THE WINDS UP AND ARE
NOW 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS NOT
OUTSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SSTS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ILEANA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. 

ILEANA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES ABOUT 8
KNOTS AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO.
HOWEVER...IT HAS BECOME A THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR A DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE...FORCING ILEANA TO
MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWEST MOTION
PERSISTS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CENTER OF ILEANA COULD END UP
MUCH CLOSER OR OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA BETWEEN 24 AND 36
HOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.   

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 19.3N 106.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 107.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 21.0N 109.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N 111.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N 113.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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