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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE
THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING TO
MOVE BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE LEFT IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF A 500 MB RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN CONTRAST
TO SIX HOURS EARLIER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL IS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
MODEL TRACKS. 

CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF FINAL T-
NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER...I.E.
TAFB MIAMI...AND THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH OF NESDIS.  HIGH
CLOUD MOTIONS IMPLY SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...BUT THE
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE WATERS WILL
BE QUITE WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING
SHOULD COMMENCE AS ILEANA REACHES ABOUT 25 DEG C WATERS.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON
STRENGTHENING THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

IF THE CURRENT TRACK PERSISTS...WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO CAN BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 18.6N 106.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 19.3N 107.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.8N 111.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W    55 KTS
 
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