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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED AND THE WATER IS WARM SO THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 

THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND COULD
BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
CONSEQUENTLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. 
  
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THIS
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 17.4N 104.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 19.2N 106.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 108.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 110.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 114.5W    35 KTS
 
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