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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000

THE CYCLONE REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL SHOWS A
DECENT-LOOKING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT POSSIBLE TO OBTAIN A DATA T NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...
USING A TYPICAL RATE OF DECAY YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS
FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  HECTOR SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW STORM
STRENGTH SOON...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD AROUND 9 KNOTS.  HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 20.1N 124.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 125.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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