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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY SHALLOW TO
MODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER...HECTOR SHOULD BE PRIMARILY STEERED BY THE EAST
TO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS.
 
HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR
THE SYSTEM CENTER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...THE
GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STEADY WEAKENING. HECTOR MAY EVEN
DISSIPATE FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 20.2N 123.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.2N 125.6W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 128.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED
 

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