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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000
 
HECTOR IS AT BEST JUST BARELY A HURRICANE...AND MAY VERY WELL BE
WEAKER.  A 06Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATES THE EYE HAS DISSIPATED...AND
MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
TRYING TO EXPOSE THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 65 KT...65 KT...AND 45 KT.  HECTOR WILL
REMAIN A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
LOCATED NORTHWEST OF HECTOR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
RIDGE SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HECTOR TAKING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE.

THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO
WEAKEN.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
THE WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
CONTINUED WEAKENING.  HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING BY 72
HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SHEAR PERSISTS OR IF THE
CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 20.7N 121.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 21.3N 122.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 22.1N 124.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N 126.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 129.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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