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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOWS A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A
SMALL RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT
AT 65 KNOTS.  HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.
 
HECTOR IS MOVING 300/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN HECTOR ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 19.6N 120.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.1N 121.2W    60 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 126.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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