HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH AN INTERMITTENT EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 65 TO 75 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE
CONVECTION IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 65 KNOTS.  HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN
IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HECTOR IS MOVING 290/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN.  THIS
PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN HECTOR ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED
BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 19.2N 119.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 125.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 130.5W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN