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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000

THERE HAS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED STRUCTURE OF THE
HURRICANE.  INTERMITTENTLY...AN EYE WAS NOTED IN THE IMAGERY.  WATER
VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX TO THE NORTH OF
HECTOR WHICH HAS BEEN ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. 
ALTERNATIVELY...IF THIS VORTEX MOVES CLOSER TO HECTOR...IT COULD
INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN FACTOR IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PASSAGE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. 
HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN A
DAY OR SO...AND WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS IN LINE
WITH OUR BEST INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...SHIPS.

MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE 290/5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
BIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...BASED ON
THE CURRENT MOTION AND OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS.  HOWEVER IN VIEW
OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF HECTOR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST TRACKS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 18.8N 119.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W    40 KTS
 
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