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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 65 KNOTS. A TRMM OVERPASS AT
2316Z INDICATED AN 8-10 N MI DIAMETER EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY GOOD.
HECTOR IS PROBABLY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING BELOW 26 DEG C SHORTLY.
A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...NEAR 4 KNOTS...CONTINUES.
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR STRENGTHENING A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE
PERIOD. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 18.5N 118.8W 65 KTS
12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.6N 119.5W 65 KTS
24HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 121.3W 65 KTS
36HR VT 15/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W 60 KTS
48HR VT 16/0000Z 20.0N 125.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.5N 130.0W 50 KTS
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