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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT.  SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES
NOT SUGGEST THAT HECTOR WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT
MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET
MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND
ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 18.2N 118.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 18.2N 118.8W    60 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.3N 120.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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