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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A
RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND ALL OF THE
TRACK MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

SATELLLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEPT THE STORM AT 55 KNOTS.  THE
SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BROUGHT HECTOR TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THIS
ADVISORY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING
IN SIZE AND DEPTH BUT HAS LOOKED A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO PERHAPS HECTOR WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 18.2N 117.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 18.2N 120.2W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.6N 123.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.2N 127.5W    55 KTS
  
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