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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
HECTOR IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES WITH DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF TAFB AND SAB. 
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.
 
VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE HELPED TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION
OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF
DUE WEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WESTWARD. THEREFORE...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 18.2N 116.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.2N 117.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 122.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 128.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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