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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12.  THE 12/00Z AVIATION MODEL
BUILDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE
FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.

WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KNOTS. 
OTHERWISE THE REMAINING CLOUD PATTERN IS NICELY SYMMETRIC WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND BANDING ALL AROUND.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW
STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. 
SSTS ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES C AFTER 36 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 18.7N 115.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N 121.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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