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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000
 
FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS
CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT NOT QUITE THERE.  WHILE
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WEST OF THE CENTER...IT IS HAVING
TROUBLE CONSISTENTLY WRAPPING AROUND IT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE CENTER THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THE WESTWARD MOTION.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPREAD BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST A
LITTLE NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE
IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR IT NOT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR...WHEN THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS.  ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE...THAT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 18.0N 110.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N 114.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 116.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 122.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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