HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT...A TYPICAL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. 
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE AND TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHOULD BE ATTAINED ON FRIDAY. 
SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAVORABLE...IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING
COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATEST
SHIPS MODEL RUN QUITE CLOSELY.

SINCE THE SYSTEM IS BROAD AND THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL 
DEFINED...CENTER FIXES AND INITIAL MOTION ARE STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN.  THE 18Z RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO A
CONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GFDL MODEL IS THE ODD MAN OUT IN THE MODEL
SUITE...SHOWING A MOTION THAT IS TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER IN
COMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 17.7N 108.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N 110.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 113.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N 115.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 117.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W    65 KTS
 
NNNN