HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A REPORT FROM SHIP ELXB9 INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TO BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. 
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.

WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING SOME THIS AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS
A HEALTHY BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  OUTFLOW LOOKS
QUITE GOOD BUT THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF HISTORY BUT IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 270/14.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INITIAL TRACK TO
THE WEST FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN.  THE LATTER MAY BE DUE TO
STRONG MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE
EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  ASSUMING THAT THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THIS
DEVELOPMENT...I KEEP A DUE WEST TRACK WITH SOME SLOWDOWN IN SPEED.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 64 KT IN 60
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE...BUT HURRICANE INTENSITY IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO DECREASING
WATER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IF THE CYCLONE
MOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST THEN HURRICANE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE
ATTAINED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 18.0N 107.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 109.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN