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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 09 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55
KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED SINCE GILMA IS OVER MARGINAL WATER
NOW THAT WILL ONLY GET COOLER WITH TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO
KEEP GILMA ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK.  A TURN MORE TO WEST IS
EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GILMA WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0900Z 20.3N 121.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 122.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 126.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     11/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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