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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 55 TO 77 KT...WITH THE LATTER NUMBER FORCED BY THE DVORAK
CONSTRAINTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT WITH THIS
ADVISORY...MAKING GILMA A TROPICAL STORM.  THE DECAY STAGE HAS
BEGUN...AS GILMA IS OVER MARGINAL WATER NOW THAT WILL ONLY GET
COOLER WITH TIME.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...BUT THERE WERE HINTS OF A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE LAST VISIBLE
IMAGERY.  I HAVE NOT FOLLOWED THAT SWIRL FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT HAVE
STAYED WITH THE CONVECTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME...
NAMELY THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GILMA AND TURN THE CYCLONE
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 20.0N 120.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 121.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.2N 123.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 21.7N 124.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N 131.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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