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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON AUG 07 2000
 
LATE VISIBLE IMAGERY HELPED TO IDENTIFY THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF
GILMA WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
280/7...QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THIS MIGHT INDICATE
THAT GILMA IS ABOUT TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...A TRACK
WHICH THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN REPEATEDLY...AND SO FAR
UNSUCCESSFULLY...SUGGESTING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW
THAT CAN BE SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TEMPORARY RIGHTWARD TURN...AND THEN A
BEND BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT...AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORM TRACKS OVER COOLER
WATER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 18.7N 117.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 118.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.3N 119.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 121.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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