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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON AUG 07 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF GILMA IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 75 KT...55
KT...AND 55 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 285/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND MANY OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS STILL CALL FOR A
NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA. 
HOWEVER...THE GFDL NOW CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH ADDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD TURNING FORECAST TRACK.
 
GILMA APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO IT IS
LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER
WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS 60 KT FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING.  SHOULD GILMA MOVE MORE NORTHWEST THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

WIND AND SEA RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF SHIP REPORTS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 18.6N 116.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 117.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 120.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 126.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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