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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
GILMA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES AND
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  GILMA HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS
OVER WARMER WATERS TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
 
GILMA IS MOVING 295/10 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE THIS SPEED AND DIRECTION BUT TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER
THE COOLER WATERS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 18.1N 113.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N 115.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N 117.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.2N 118.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N 120.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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