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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONSOLIDATED 
RATHER REMARKABLY THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE BANDS OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  QUIKSCAT
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT
BEFORE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A TRIFLE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
295/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. 
SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...AND
TROPICAL STORM FABIO AHEAD OF IT IS MOVING WEST...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HR
FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
NHC91.

THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND LARGE-
SCALE MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS.  THUS...
STEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES THE
SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN
EARLIER.
 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 14.1N 105.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.9N 107.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.6N 110.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 112.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N 117.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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