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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000
 
FABIO CONTINUES AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH BURSTS OF
CONVECTION ABOUT 60 NM SW OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE ALL 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...THE TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION AS 6 HR AGO.
THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF GILMA TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE SLOWER AT THE END DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF GILMA.  IF
FABIO AND GILMA DO INTERACT AS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND UKMET
MODELS... THE SMALLER FABIO COULD HAVE SOME VERY ERRATIC MOTION. 

FABIO CONTINUES UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE.  DESPITE THIS...THE
SHIPS MODEL STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM...AND LARGE-SCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24
HR.  HOWEVER...IF CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THE
CYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE INSTEAD OF STRENGTHEN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 15.9N 124.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N 125.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.6N 127.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.4N 128.9W    35 KTS
48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 130.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/0600Z 14.5N 133.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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