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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF FABIO CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED NORTHEAST
OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 30 KT. AS THE
CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE GETTING WEAKER AND FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...
FABIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF FABIO... WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION
AND SPEED. THE LBAR CALLS FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE
NHC91 IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A FASTER MOTION
TO 13N139W BY 72 HR...WHILE THE SLOWER BAM MODELS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR
14N132W AT THAT TIME. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE UKMET MODEL INDICATES
INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE MOTION OF FABIO COULD BE QUITE
ERRATIC.
IF THE SHEAR EVER DECREASES...FABIO IS LIKELY TO STAY OVER WATER
WARM ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE
SHEAR MAY DECREASE...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY TAKING
FABIO TO 60 KT IN 72 HR. SINCE FABIO IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BACKS OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE STRENGTHENING IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HR.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/0300Z 16.1N 123.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 06/1200Z 15.9N 125.0W 30 KTS
24HR VT 07/0000Z 15.7N 126.8W 30 KTS
36HR VT 07/1200Z 15.4N 128.7W 35 KTS
48HR VT 08/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W 40 KTS
72HR VT 09/0000Z 14.5N 133.5W 45 KTS
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