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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM FABIO REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST.
PREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS
BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FOR
THIS REASON WE HAVE HELD THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/09. FABIO IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND
ALSO BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ALL OF OUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
TRACKS FABIO WESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST
AFTERWARDS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE NOGAPS MODEL...AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD OF
THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.

FABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED STATE FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST TO LET UP
SLIGHTLY AND FABIO WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS. THE OFFICAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR
DECREASES FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING...THEN FABIO COULD BECOME A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.
 

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 16.9N 120.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 124.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 16.7N 128.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 15.9N 132.5W    50 KTS
  
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