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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000
 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS ONCE AGAIN REMOVED MOST OF THE
CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT FABIO HAS NOT
INTENSIFIED AS EXPECTED AND...IN FACT...IT COULD BE WEAKER THAT
EARLIER TODAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM...ANY
RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE
STORM.
  
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FABIO ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 16.7N 119.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 123.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 125.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 127.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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