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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000
 
THE CENTER OF FABIO IS NOW LOCATED UNDER A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND
3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. I NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45
KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO
EASTERLY SHEAR. A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.

A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FABIO ON A GENERAL
WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N 119.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 130.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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