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TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2000

EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE DUE TO UPPER-
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...DATA T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.  QUICKSCAT DATA ALSO
SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  ONLY A SLOW
INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD
ALSO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.

MOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
SUBSTANTIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
WESTWARD AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
18Z AVN MODEL RUN...IN WHICH THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN
INITIALIZED RATHER REASONABLY.  THE GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS
ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 16.8N 116.3W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.9N 117.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W    55 KTS
 
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